Extreme heat will claim more than two
thousand lives by mid-century, according to expert analysis
Baltimore – The annual
death toll from extreme heat in Baltimore
is expected to increase from 48 to 141, resulting in 2,232 additional
heat-related deaths by mid-century as global warming drives up summertime temperatures,
according to a new study. The report was released today by Environment Maryland
and Chesapeake Physicians for Social Responsibility, and was conducted by Applied
Climatologists experts Dr. Laurence Kalkstein of the University
of Miami and Dr. Scott Greene of
the University of Oklahoma.
The study’s examination of twenty-one U.S.
cities found that 23,160 additional
heat-related deaths would occur due to global warming-induced temperature
increases. The average summer season would see a doubling of heat-related
deaths, going from about 908 heat-related deaths per summer to almost 1,900 by
mid-century.
Baltimore is
expected to be the fourth hardest hit of the twenty-one cities studied.
“If global warming hasn’t hit home for people yet, this
analysis should be a wake-up call,” said Environment Maryland State Director
Brad Heavner. “Congress should follow
the science and enact federal policy that cuts our global warming pollution to
the levels that will prevent the worst effects of global warming.”
The report uses two measures to show the likely changes. The
first measure pinpoints the change in “increased mortality days,” which are
days that exceed a city’s temperature threshold for excess mortality. In Baltimore,
that heat threshold is 101 degrees. The city currently experiences 6 days above
that threshold, on average, with the number expected to increase to 16 by mid-century.
The second measure looks at deaths that occur once the
temperature threshold is exceeded. Baltimore
currently experiences an average of 48 heat-related deaths per summer. That is
projected to increase to 141 by mid-century.
“If
we begin to decrease our emissions now, perhaps we can reach a point in our
children’s old age when the number of heat-related deaths begins to decrease,”
said Dr. Gwen Dubois, a Baltimore
physician who works with Chesapeake Physicians for Social Responsibility.
The prolonged high temperatures of future heat waves will
impact aging baby boomers the most, with young children, people with certain medical
conditions, and people who work or exercise outdoors also being at elevated
risk. In addition, the urban poor, many of whom do not have air conditioning
and lack access to air-conditioned public places, are vulnerable to heat-related
illnesses.
“We
need to radically decrease our CO2 emissions at the same time that communities
take action to protect their most vulnerable members from dying in heat waves,”
said Dr. Cindy Parker, a leader of Chesapeake Physicians for Social
Responsibility who also works at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health. “Heat-related deaths are largely preventable.”
Scientists agree that we must commit to cutting our global
warming pollution by 80% by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of global warming.
Federal legislation adopting that goal is co-sponsored by Reps. Cummings,
Sarbanes, Van Hollen, and Wynn. Reps.
Bartlett, Gilchrest, Hoyer, and Ruppersberger have not yet co-sponsored the
bill. The Senate version is co-sponsored by both Sen. Mikulski and Sen. Cardin.
Congress is expected to take up global warming legislation later this month.
Here in Maryland,
the O’Malley administration and the Maryland Commission on Climate Change are
also considering a commitment to science-based levels of reduction in global
warming pollution. The commission recommendation is due in November.
The study’s findings are consistent with a 1997 scientific study
by Drs. Kalkstein and Greene on the relationship between changing climate and
mortality in large U.S.
cities, published in “Environmental Health Perspectives.” That study also found
that populations in mid-latitude cities tend to be those most affected by
temperature changes. As a result, the increases in mortality during heat waves
are generally higher in the northern cities. The study was conducted through
Dr. Kalkstein’s firm, Applied Climatologists, Inc.
Heat-Related-Mortality.pdf